Summer Market Similar to Last Year?
The summer of 2022 was the most divergent market historically from the prior four decades we have tracked. Last summer’s market showcased both distracted buyers and sellers that were more focused on
life events, having just come out of the pandemic. Instead of decelerating into the summer months as last year did that eventually carried through the end of 2022, this year is resuming the more natural
curve witnessed over our history – though with a slight hangover bias towards last years weight of people being able to get back to celebrating life.
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 651 single-family homes left for sale at the close of June – 22 percent fewer than this same period twelve months ago as well as a new all-time monthly low for June. Sellers delivered 292 new listings to the market during the period – 39 percent less than in 2022 - while buyers garnered control of another 344 new deals – 14 percent off from a year earlier due to higher interest rates, lower inventory levels and the seasonality of our marketplace. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 341 for the period – 47 percent fewer than the 465 homes sold last year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve aggressively trying to dampen demand by raising the cost of money, MSI has
continued to stabilize and in June the level stood at 1.9 – indicative of a stronger seller’s market and one picking up steam in that direction over the course of the five previous reporting periods.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower
numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 112 homes reported for sale as June concluded – essentially on par with a
year earlier. This region experienced the addition of 31 new listings during the month while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 41 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 28 new
homeowners – 42 percent off from a year earlier – allowing MSI to rise to 4.0 with an expectation of regressing to a tighter reading in July.
Healdsburg witnessed 13 new listings arrive to the market last month – 35 percent less than last year at this time. Buyers absorbed 16 homes in new deals while sellers closed out 18 transactions leaving this
submarket with 63 homes for presentation to buyers in July – just a hair less than where it was last year further besting its prior historic low for the month and revealing an MSI swinging back and forth while
settling to a tighter reading of 3.5 for this period. Petaluma’s Westside attracted just 17 new sellers in June which helped available inventory to stabilize for now at 34 homes for buyers to select from by months end. Home seekers grabbed 23 new deals in the period while sellers closed out 22 more purchases leading to an MSI registering at 1.5.
Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 40 available homes for buyers to consider inclusive of the 14 additional offerings brought forth in the period. Home shoppers placed 16 more dwellings into contract
while sellers completed 13 sales – 59 percent fewer than in 2022 - allowing MSI to expand to 3.1 in June. Showcasing a similar market to last year, just less of everything across the board, Russian River property owners delivered just 18 new listings in June while buyers captured 29 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 22 more transactions leaving 47 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in July while highlighting an MSI of 2.1.
What’s this means to you…Opportunity! That’s right. As those off celebrating life events return, we expect the competitiveness to gain steam in September. So, if you are a buyer now, there is a window of
time for you to negotiate better with sellers - though like all windows of opportunities, this one will close as well.
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